Policymakers in Washington have devoted enormous effort to confront threats posed by China, but what if the communist regime suddenly collapsed?
That’s a question raised by Miles Yu, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, in a recent op-ed in the Washington Times.
“The greatest strategic challenge posed by China may not be what happens if the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] succeeds, but what happens if it suddenly fails,” he wrote in the column published on Sept. 14.
Yu didn’t predict an imminent collapse or give any timeline for regime change. Instead, he highlighted that such scenario planning rarely appears in public discussion among Western policymakers.
“That is a dangerous failure of imagination,” Yu wrote.
Pointing to a series of collapsing regimes across Eastern Europe in 1989 and the fall of the Soviet Union two years later, Yu said dictatorships may appear to be “seemingly permanent” until the moment they disappear.
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“The CCP may survive for decades, or it may collapse with the breathtaking speed of the communist regimes of 1989,” Yu, an adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during President Donald Trump’s first term, wrote. “We cannot know when, but history gives us no excuse for being surprised twice.”
The sudden collapse of the CCP could trigger military, financial, humanitarian, political, and proliferation crises, he argued, urging Washington to establish an interagency mechanism to coordinate plans for a post-CCP contingency.
“Readying for China after communism is not a regime-change policy. It is insurance against the most consequential political contingency of the 21st century,” he wrote.
‘Endgame’
Analysts said that the potential for a surprise collapse of the CCP is worth taking seriously.
“There are many reasons why people argue that the regime could collapse at any time. One is that it lacks legitimacy—it no longer has ordinary people’s faith or trust,” said Feng Chongyi, an associate professor at the University of Technology Sydney in Australia.
“No one knows whether there will be an incident that triggers a large-scale, nationwide uprising,” Feng said.
If that happens, “the authorities might deploy the military to suppress it. If the military refuses to follow orders, that could cause a split within the ruling elite, which possibly leads to the overthrow of the regime.”
A man waits to cross a road during a high-pollution day in Beijing on Sept. 17, 2026. Greg Baker/ AFP
“At very least, the repeated purges illustrate that Xi Jinping doesn’t feel he can trust the people around him,” Feng said. “The power struggle and mutual suspicion within the leadership could also spiral into unexpected internal conflict, ultimately resulting in Xi being removed.”
“All the dry tinder is already lying around,” Feng said. “Nobody knows what will be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.”
‘Power Vacuum’
“Suppose that one day something happened to Xi—whether because his health failed or some other reason—and he could no longer issue orders, who would exactly be in charge of the Party?” said Sheng Xue, a Toronto-based writer and commentator who has observed China for more than two decades.
Military delegates arrive for the fourth plenary session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 11, 2023. Greg Baker/ POOL via Getty Images
Technically, the regime has certain procedures for such a scenario, but “Xi has essentially replaced those institutions with his own personal style of rule,” Sheng told The Epoch Times.
Even if the rules help identify who should assume responsibility, that doesn’t mean the officials have effective authority or influence within the Party, according to Sheng.
“At that point, the Party would have no central figure, while the military would also lack a clear supreme commander. That would amount to a dual power vacuum,” Sheng said.
Under Xi, the CCP has shifted toward an “extreme authoritarian and totalitarian model,” Sheng said.
“If the Party were to collapse suddenly, that could lead to a very chaotic situation. That’s why I believe the United States should have a roadmap for such a scenario.”
Nuclear Warheads
The “biggest risks” in the sudden dissolution of the CCP’s central authorities would be the loss of control over weapons of mass destruction, said Shen Ming-shih, a Chinese military expert at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwan-based think tank.
“Who would be responsible for these warheads if any unrest erupts during the transition into the post-CCP period?” Shen asked.
The new YJ 21 hypersonic anti-ship missile is seen on trucks during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Japan and the end of World War II, in Tiananmen Square in Beijing on Sept. 3 Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
“If, at the time, the country descended into civil war and different military or political factions gain control of those nuclear weapons, there would be a greater risk that the internal power struggle escalates into a nuclear conflict,” Shen told The Epoch Times.
While China’s political future should be decided by its people, preparation is necessary for the international community, he cautioned.
“The United States and its allies, as well as China’s neighboring countries, need a contingency plan,” Shen said.
The primary objective is to prevent nuclear weapons and sensitive technology from ending up in the wrong hands, be it the global black market network or even extremist groups elsewhere, Shen added.
Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University, called on the United States and its allies to develop a clear roadmap.
“Prepare to integrate a democratic, peaceful, and prosperous China, or risk facing another Russia—or worse, several Russias,” he wrote on X on Sept. 16.
Gordon Chang, China commentator and author of “Plan Red: China’s Project to Destroy America,” echoed the message on social media.
“China’s regime is fragile. Let’s not rescue Chinese communism—for a fourth time.”
Luo Ya contributed to this report.