A possible US restriction on diesel exports could have a mixed impact on fuel prices. Diesel prices in the US could fall at first as more fuel stays in the country, but gasoline prices could later rise if refiners are forced to cut production, Goldman Sachs said.The bank said restrictions on diesel exports, including quotas, were a possible scenario, although it was not its base case. It modelled a possible ban starting in early October and lasting through at least December. A 90-day restriction is reportedly being considered.The impact would first be felt in the US diesel market. With exports restricted, more diesel would remain in the country, pushing up inventories. As long as there is enough storage space, this could put pressure on diesel prices.Goldman Sachs estimates that every week of an export ban could lower average US retail diesel prices by around $0.25 per gallon while storage space remains available.US diesel exports have already increased from 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 to around 1.6 mb/d in recent months. At the same time, the national average retail diesel price has risen to $6.5 per gallon, according to the report.
What happens if diesel storage fills up?
The fall in diesel prices may not continue if inventories keep rising and storage space becomes limited.Goldman Sachs estimates that US diesel inventories could theoretically fill up within 9-10 weeks if exports fell by 1.6 mb/d. However, the bank said this could take longer in practice because refiners could reduce production and demand for diesel could increase.Once storage becomes tight, the pressure could shift to refiners.Lower diesel prices could reduce refining margins and encourage refiners to cut output. This could also reduce the amount of gasoline and jet fuel produced.That could push US gasoline prices higher. Goldman Sachs estimates that once diesel storage is full, every additional week of an export ban could put around $0.30 per gallon of upward pressure on US retail gasoline prices.The bank also said gasoline prices could start facing upward pressure even before diesel storage reaches its theoretical limit, as refiners reduce production.
Europe could see diesel prices rise
The impact could also be felt outside the US.Goldman Sachs expects diesel prices in Europe and other markets to rise if US exports are restricted. It estimates that every week of an export ban could increase European wholesale diesel prices by around $3 per barrel, or just under 2%.However, releases from European strategic reserves could help limit the increase. Goldman Sachs estimates that these releases could offset around half of the rise.Meanwhile, the effects of a temporary export ban could continue even after restrictions are lifted.Goldman Sachs said US diesel prices would likely reconnect with international prices once the restrictions end. However, global refined-product prices could remain higher than they otherwise would have been because temporary cuts in US refinery output would have reduced inventories.
