NEW DELHI: The southwest (summer) monsoon, which has so far reported a cumulative (June 1-Sept 14) rainfall deficit of over 14% this season, is likely to start withdrawing from west Rajasthan this weekend. IMD predicted Monday that conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon’s withdrawal around Sept 19.Monsoon normally starts withdrawing from Sept 17 and its withdrawal process ends on Oct 15 – a few days ahead of the onset of winter monsoon in peninsular India.The deficit of more than 14% as of Monday shows that monsoon this year is more likely to end with a deficit of 10% or more – a deficient rainfall condition that is considered a drought in the country, with its impact on the farm sector, water storage and hydropower potential.In May, IMD predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon (June-Sept) in the country, with a 60% probability of ‘deficient’ rainfall due to the impact of El Nino, a climatic condition that is invariably associated with a harsh summer and a weak monsoon in India.
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Though the huge deficit of rainfall did not impact acreage of kharif (summer-sown) crops much, with sown area this year as of Sept 11 only around 1.5% less than sown area during the corresponding period in 2025, the impact can only be assessed through yield when harvesting begins in Oct. “Although sowing has progressed well, it doesn’t mean the sector is out of danger,” said ratings agency Crisil.Noting that the key risk has now shifted from acreage to yields, particularly for crops with limited irrigation support, the Crisil’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter (DRIP) highlights vulnerabilities in cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean due to deficient rainfall and lower irrigation coverage.
