Before he withdrew from the undeclared Liberal Party leadership contest on Friday, backbencher Andrew Hastie was told by right-faction colleagues: you will lead the party, just not yet.
As Liberals digested one of the worst polls in the party’s history, supporters of Mr Hastie said the backbencher wanted to make a significant contribution to the Opposition if his former rival, Angus Taylor, replaced leader Sussan Ley, and could be utilised in an economics role.
“Angus is the guy for now,” said one Liberal involved in leadership negotiations. “Andrew is the guy for the future.”
Gathering in Canberra for parliamentary sittings, Liberal MPs were openly speculating about the timing of a leadership challenge after a poll showed voters had abandoned the party en masse for One Nation.
Pauline Hanson’s far-right party leads the former Coalition by seven percentage points and 35 per cent to 12 per cent among people born from 1965 to 1980, or Generation X, according to a RedBridge Accent poll published Sunday evening.
“It’s the worst” poll for the Liberals ever, pollster Kos Samaras said. “This isn’t a statistical error here. It is a structural shift to One Nation.”
Financial pain
Mr Samaras said conservative blue-collar voters, once known as the “Howard Battlers” after former prime minister John Howard, had left the party because their living standards had not risen under Coalition governments.
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates, causing financial pain for millions of voters. While the economy looks likely to dominate politics in coming months, Mr Taylor’s supporters said they would prefer the high-profile Mr Hastie to take on a portfolio such as home affairs or energy because of his lack of economics training.
Liberals are bracing themselves for the resumption of Parliament on Tuesday when, for the first time, the Opposition will consist solely of the Liberal Party unless a last-minute deal to re-form the Coalition is agreed on.
“Ideally, Sussan would realise her position is untenable,” said one Liberal. “There are not that many leaders who form that view.”
Ms Ley, the first woman to lead the Liberal Party, has given no indication she will resign, which could force her internal opponents to launch a challenge that would further damage the party.
“They continually underestimate her and that is to their disadvantage, not hers,” one of Ms Ley’s allies said.
Covert operation
Mr Hastie’s office did not respond to a request for comment. In a written statement on Friday withdrawing from the undeclared leadership contest, the 43-year-old Perth MP did not abandon or affirm his long-stated interest in becoming leader.
Senior members of the right faction have told Mr Hastie that his charisma, strong ideals and military record will eventually deliver him the leadership. “He’s the hope of the side,” said one. “There is no doubt about it.”
At a now-notorious meeting last Thursday in Melbourne, Mr Hastie and Mr Taylor met with other Liberals to discuss whether their faction could unite behind one candidate. The confidential meeting was planned as the first of several to settle on a candidate, according to a person involved.
But Mr Hastie, who led a military unit during the Afghanistan war that specialised in covert operations, was followed by photographer and reporter Liam Mendes of The Australian from a private club in central Melbourne to a house in Hawthorn.
Mr Mendes’ photos and video of the men arriving and leaving were so embarrassing, because the meeting took place before the funeral of former Liberal MP, Katie Allen, that further face-to-face negotiations were cancelled, a source said.
Another person involved said they believed a person with knowledge of the meeting may have shared the time and location with the newspaper, a tactic that backfired.
In a sign of the tensions caused by the leadership jostling, two of Mr Hastie’s supporters, MPs Henry Pike and Garth Hamilton, have upset Mr Taylor’s team by actively campaigning for their candidate. They did not respond to a request for comment.
One question being considered is who would run as Mr Taylor’s deputy. Some right figures believe Mr Hastie would help win back One Nation voters. Others believe a member of the left faction, likely a woman, would be needed to demonstrate the party’s commitment to diversity.
Others say the current deputy, Ted O’Brien, should be allowed to keep the job, which would probably mean that he remains shadow treasurer given the practice of allowing deputies to chose their portfolios.
