About a week ago the newly appointed chief executive at Leopardstown Racecourse, Mark ‘Noah’ Clayton, called an emergency meeting of his team. “Enough of the oul’ DRF preparation,” he told them. “Find your wellies and grab a hammer. We’re building an Arc.”
It seemed like a wise decision in the light of the Biblical rains that followed and it looked like the only viable sport at the South Dublin track this weekend would be outdoor water polo.
Happily, on Wednesday Clayton released a dove, and when his bird returned with an olive leaf, wellies and hammers were soon discarded and work resumed on the best two days of jump racing in Ireland this year. The ground will probably ride like a sticky marshmallow which oddly enough might be a clue to an efficient betting strategy over the next couple of days.
There are eight grade One races at stake at the DRF festival and each of those contests there are relatively short-priced favourites who are available ante-post at much longer odds for the equivalent event at the Cheltenham festival in six weeks’ time.
This raises an interesting conundrum for their supporters. What makes most financial sense: to take short prices at the DRF or instead, wager ante-post on the same animals for Cheltenham on the expectation that after this weekend that their prices will shorten significantly for next month’s extravaganza? The answer lies in your attitude to risk, and consumption.
The prestigious Californian University, Stanford, conducted an experiment on a group of four-year olds in the 1960s to test their attitude to delayed gratification. They were offered a marshmallow and told if they didn’t eat it immediately, they could all have another one in 15 minutes.
Predictably, most of the greedy little rugrats had gorged on the treat before they had even finished listening to the instructions, but those that had the patience to wait for the second one were observed to experience better life outcomes in longitudinal studies. In short, if you are willing to wait, nicer things may come your way.
An example: Doctor Steinberg, trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Paul Townend is trading at evens for today’s opening race and at 6/1 for his most likely Cheltenham target, the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle over three miles on the Friday of the festival. The tantalising question: one marshmallow today or await the possibility of two in March?
For the purposes of simplicity, presume that the good Doctor wins today, comes out of the race sound and that Cheltenham will be run on ground somewhere in the region of ‘good to soft.’ Under ante-post betting rules if a horse doesn’t show up for the specific race he’s been backed to win your money disappears faster than this week’s rainwater went down a drainpipe, so relative certainty on the festival target is essential.
Doctor Steinberg was moderate in bumpers but improved significantly over hurdles and has won his two starts easily over two and a half miles, plus. In the second of these he beat Paul Nolan’s good novice, Thedeviluno by almost five lengths, and he in turn beat several English multiple winners in a lucrative Grade Two contest at Doncaster last week. The form looks strong.
Another factor is ground preferences. Doctor Steinberg’s three wins to date have been on good, yielding, and soft to heavy, so he is ground agnostic and should cope with any extreme that Cheltenham might throw at him. The final consideration is the likely target and successfully decoding the annual Willie Mullin’ pre-Cheltenham game of ‘pin the tail on the donkey’ a riveting annual puzzle of trying to guess in which of the festival races he’ll fire his bigger guns.
But Willie doesn’t want to win some of the races at Cheltenham, he wants to win all of them. He has good ammunition in the other all-aged novice hurdles, and he is bound to send a ‘dyed in the wool’ stayer to a race that only dyed in the wool stayers normally win.
All that’s left now is to do the sums. Imagine that ‘Patti the Punter’ has a tenner to spend this afternoon and strongly fancies Doctor Steinberg, which will double her money. Alternatively, she could spend her money backing him at 6/1 to win the Albert Barlett for a possible profit of €60.
This way she has the double-dip excitement of cheering her selection home today and retaining an interest into March. If he wins narrowly this afternoon, he will contract to about 4/1 for Cheltenham, if he wins by half the straight, he could trend towards even money. In this case Patti now has three options on how to grow her tenner.
Let it ride at 6/1, lay the horse on an exchange at lower odds for a guaranteed profit or cash out at for a gain if her bookie offers that facility. And if the worst happens and Doctor Steinberg is beaten today, he will drift in the betting for March. In that case, she’d have lost her tenner anyway but with an ante-post investment she still owns a live insurance policy running at 6/1. The decision depends on just how hungry Patti is for that marshmallow.
Now apply that ‘eat now or delay gratification’ logic to the major players in the other seven Grade Ones at the DRF.
: (2.55 Saturday, Irish Arkle Chase, Odds 1-2. Cheltenham equivalent, Arkle Chase, 4/1.) Gordon Elliot has been torturing himself trying to decide on a programme for a horse that needs more than two miles, but probably not quite three and they are the distances of the two grade one novice chases at Cheltenham. Too many destination uncertainties to risk an ante-post bet.
: (2.10 Sunday, Dublin Steeplechase, 7/4, Champion Chase, 13/8) This, as they say, is a ‘no-brainer.’ The classiest two-mile chaser around and although the ground is not ideal for him tomorrow, he should still beat the slow jumping Majborough. Just why he is a longer price today than when he’ll face a stronger field in March is a mystery.
(3.20 Sunday, Irish Champion Hurdle, 5/6, Champion Hurdle, 3/1) With the injury carnage to may of the leading fancies for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, it might end up as a lady’s championship between Lossiemouth, Golden Ace and Brighterdaysahead. If Lossiemouth wins today she will probably take both. But as noted, Willie likes to’ win ‘em all’ and he might still route her to the Mare’s Hurdle. Ante-post too risky because of this uncertainty.
(1.50 Saturday, Gannon’s Hurdle, 4/5, Triumph Hurdle, 7/2). The best juvenile hurdler in training and if he wins easily today will go very short for the Triumph, which is his only real option at the festival.
(3.30 Saturday, Irish Gold Cup, 6/4, Gold Cup 5/1). Bet or no bet, Leopardstown today is the place to be if the grand old man of Irish racing collects his fourth consecutive Irish Gold Cup. Barring unforeseen circumstances, he’s a certain runner in next month’s Gold Cup and win, lose or draw this afternoon he’s unlikely to start at 5/1.
(1.40 Sunday, Tattersall’s Hurdle, 6/4, Supreme Novice Hurdle, 9/1). Patti is on a wing and a prayer with this one. It looked like he was coming to win a grade one easily here at Christmas but tipped over at the last. The Supreme is his likely target and if he wins today his odds will halve.
(1.10 Sunday, Ladbroke’s Novice Chase, 1/3, Brown Advisory, 5/4.) Don’t bother. If you have the three euro already, then you probably don’t want to risk it today for another one and 5/4 for a three mile ‘nervous’ novice chase six weeks away makes no sense.
